Models
Recent model work, each written up in full on Medium: what the model does, how it was built and where it still falls short.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
A three-part build of a football WAR model: the first version, the feedback it received, and the data collection and cleaning behind the rebuild.
Contextual Expected Threat (CxT)
Expected threat with match context: state values fitted through Bellman iteration instead of a fixed pitch-zone lookup.
Expected Fails Forced (xFF)
A pressing model: how likely a defender's pressure is to force the player on the ball into a failed action.
Goalkeeper tracking profiles
Goalkeeper profiles extended with tracking data, adding positioning and off-ball measures to shot-stopping.
Shot-clock model (MDP)
Possession modelled as a Markov Decision Process to estimate how much time an attack has before a shot.
Passing and shooting models
Decision time added to expected-pass models, and an entropy-adjusted variant of expected goals.